KEYTAKEAWAYS
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Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff admits misjudging Bitcoin’s rise, citing underestimated underground economy influence and criticizing regulators’ conflicts of interest.
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Asian wealthy investors increasingly allocate ~5% to crypto, driven by stronger markets, clearer regulation, and growing institutional demand across the region.
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Fed Chair Powell likely stays neutral at Jackson Hole, stressing data-driven policy; jobs and inflation reports will shape rate cut decisions.
CONTENT
HARVARD PROFESSOR ROGOFF REFLECTS ON EARLY BITCOIN PREDICTION MISTAKE
Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff reflected on his 2018 prediction mistake. He had predicted Bitcoin would likely be worth $100, not $100,000, in a decade. Now, Bitcoin’s price has surpassed $113,000, more than ten times higher than in 2018.
Rogoff admitted he was “too optimistic” about U.S. crypto regulation and underestimated Bitcoin’s role in the $20 trillion global underground economy, which supports its price. He also criticized regulators for holding billions in crypto without consequences, calling it a “clear conflict of interest.”
ANALYSIS
Rogoff’s admission underscores Bitcoin’s resilience, driven by underground market use and institutional adoption. His critique of regulators aligns with broader debates over unclear U.S. policy, which may have strengthened Bitcoin’s decentralized appeal. The $113,000 milestone highlights strong demand despite regulatory uncertainty.
However, the conflict-of-interest claim points to oversight gaps that could shape future crypto policy. Bitcoin’s long-term valuation will depend on balancing regulatory frameworks with its role in global finance.
CRYPTO ASSETS GAIN POPULARITY AMONG ASIAN WEALTHY INVESTORS
Wealthy families and family offices across Asia are expanding crypto allocations, driven by bullish market trends, mainstream adoption, and regulatory improvements. Wealth managers report surging inquiries, while exchanges see higher volumes and stronger fund demand. Many family offices now view crypto as an essential asset class, though most limit allocations to around 5% of their portfolios.
ANALYSIS
Rising Asian crypto investment reflects growing confidence in digital assets as a portfolio staple. Strong markets and clearer regulation in regions like Hong Kong and Singapore are fueling adoption. The 5% cap suggests cautious optimism, balancing growth potential with volatility risks.
This influx of capital could strengthen exchanges and funds, positioning Asia as a leader in global crypto adoption. However, market downturns could quickly test this cautious exposure strategy.
FED’S POWELL MAY STAY NEUTRAL AT JACKSON HOLE MEETING
T. Rowe Price’s chief U.S. economist Blerina Uruci said Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech may emphasize flexibility for upcoming FOMC meetings, tying policy to inflation and labor data. Before the September 17 meeting, one jobs report and one CPI report will be released. If inflation rises or labor strengthens, rates may remain unchanged. If job growth falls below 50,000 and unemployment rises, a 50-basis-point dovish cut is possible.
ANALYSIS
Powell’s expected neutral stance highlights the Fed’s data-driven approach, aligning with earlier forecasts of a smaller 25-bps cut. This could temper expectations for aggressive easing. For crypto, the uncertainty adds volatility: weak jobs data could trigger a larger cut, lifting Bitcoin and Ethereum, while stronger data may delay cuts, putting pressure on prices. Traders should watch upcoming CPI and labor reports as key drivers of short-term market direction.
