KEYTAKEAWAYS
- Bitcoin turns 17, CEX volume lags 2021, and MicroStrategy posts billions in paper gains — but leverage stress is rising fast.
- From white paper to $2T asset: Bitcoin matures as ETFs grow, CEX activity cools, and MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin bet gets tested.
- 17 years after launch, Bitcoin dominates finance debates, ETFs shift liquidity, and MicroStrategy’s high-stakes BTC strategy faces market pressure.
CONTENT
17TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE BITCOIN WHITE PAPER
On October 31, it marked 17 years since Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin white paper, *“Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”*, on the P2P Foundation website. The Bitcoin network officially launched on January 3, 2009, with an initial price of $0.0008. Today, Bitcoin trades at $109,828 with a total market capitalization of $2.18 trillion.
Over these seventeen years, Bitcoin has evolved from a theoretical concept to a global consensus. Its soaring value reflects growing recognition of the decentralized monetary experiment. Beyond price fluctuations, the real story lies in its technological evolution — from basic on-chain transactions to innovations like the Lightning Network, Runes, and BRC-20 protocols. The Bitcoin ecosystem is gradually moving beyond the “digital gold” narrative, exploring new frontiers of programmability and functionality.
CEX TRADING VOLUME IN THIS BULL RUN STILL BELOW 2021 PEAK
According to data from The Block on October 31, the total trading volume across centralized exchanges (CEXs) peaked at $2.9 trillion in December 2024 during the current crypto bull cycle. At that time, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $108,353. Despite this milestone, overall trading activity remains weaker than during the 2021 bull market.
This muted trading volume highlights several trends. First, the market’s participation structure has shifted. A large portion of capital now enters via spot Bitcoin ETFs — products traded off-exchange that do not contribute to CEX on-chain volume. Institutional investors increasingly favor regulated derivatives markets such as CME or ETF vehicles, diverting liquidity away from traditional crypto exchanges.
Another key factor is the steady rise of decentralized exchanges (DEXs). While their total volume remains smaller, DEXs have captured users seeking transparency and self-custody, especially for trading emerging tokens and meme coins. This growing activity continues to erode CEX market share.
STRATEGY REPORTS $2.8 BILLION NET PROFIT IN Q3
On October 31, Bloomberg reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) posted a net profit of $2.8 billion in Q3, driven by unrealized gains from its roughly $69 billion Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s approach represents both the opportunity and risk of corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies. The firm has relied on capital market instruments — issuing bonds, preferred shares, and convertible notes — to continually acquire Bitcoin, deeply tying its enterprise value to Bitcoin’s price performance. While this model delivers substantial paper gains and stock premiums during bull markets, it also exposes the firm to volatility, financing costs, and liquidity risks.
The key issue now is sustainability. Despite paper profits from Bitcoin appreciation, Strategy’s stock has corrected sharply, and capital markets have cooled. Investors are re-evaluating the risk-reward profile of such a highly leveraged, single-asset strategy. The shrinking premium to net asset value (NAV) suggests concerns about the firm’s future financing capacity, annual interest burden of roughly $689 million, and exposure to Bitcoin’s volatility. Moreover, weaker-than-expected demand for its preferred share issuance underscores growing market caution.
