Biden’s Odds of Dropping Out Rise to 46% on Polymarket After Debate

US Election 2024, Joe Biden, Polymarket


  • Polymarket bettors now give Biden a 46% chance of dropping out before November.
  • Concerns over Biden's age and debate performance fuel speculation about his candidacy.


Cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket sees surge in bets predicting President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race, following a shaky debate performance and growing concerns over his age and ability to secure another term.


In a significant shift on the decentralized blockchain betting platform Polymarket, traders have dramatically increased their bets on President Joe Biden withdrawing from the 2024 U.S. presidential race before November. The odds of Biden dropping out have surged to 46%, up from 19% just last Thursday, following the first presidential debate against former President Donald Trump.


The 81-year-old incumbent’s performance during the CNN-hosted debate has intensified scrutiny over his ability to secure a second term. Critics pointed to moments where Biden appeared to struggle with articulation, occasionally slurring his speech and engaging in unexpected exchanges about golfing abilities.


By contrast, Trump, 77, maintained a more composed demeanor, emphasizing his familiar talking points on immigration and foreign policy while highlighting Biden’s perceived missteps. “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump remarked about Biden’s comments on immigration. “I don’t think he knows what he said either.”


A CBS News and YouGov poll conducted immediately after the debate revealed a stark lack of support for Biden’s candidacy, with only 28% of registered voters backing his run and a substantial 72% opposing it.


Despite the growing speculation, the Biden camp has shown a united front. On Sunday, prominent Democratic figures and major donors rallied behind the President, reaffirming their support for his nomination. The Wall Street Journal reported that during informal discussions at Camp David, Biden’s family urged him to continue his reelection campaign, presenting a strong consensus for him to remain in the race.


The cryptocurrency community has been closely watching the election, particularly since Trump’s recent endorsement of digital assets and his decision to accept crypto donations. This stance contrasts sharply with the regulatory approach of Biden-appointed SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, which many in the crypto industry view as overly aggressive.


Edward Wilson, a cryptocurrency market analyst, commented on the situation: “Trump’s acceptance and embrace of crypto are in stark contrast with the overwhelmingly regressive approach to crypto taken by the Biden administration. Many US-based supporters place crypto as a key issue for them and are fed up with the approach of going after good actors in the space, like Coinbase and Uniswap.”


As the election draws nearer, the interplay between political developments and cryptocurrency market sentiment is likely to intensify, potentially influencing both voter behavior and market dynamics in the months ahead.


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