KEYTAKEAWAYS
- Bitcoin faces potential 31% downside as key support levels weaken. Analysts expect corrections before long-term gains driven by institutional capital and renewed liquidity.
- ETH and SOL fall below treasury cost basis, exposing billions in unrealized losses and raising concerns over liquidity risk and flawed altcoin strategies.
- Matrixport warns Bitcoin has entered a micro bear market with slowing ETF inflows, weak catalysts, and increased profit-taking as macro uncertainty grows.
CONTENT
BITCOIN UNLIKELY TO HIT NEW HIGHS THIS YEAR
On November 14, Arete Capital partner McKenna stated in a market outlook that Bitcoin still has meaningful downside risk in the short term, with a potential maximum drawdown of up to 31%. However, from a long-term perspective, institutional accumulation and capital inflows remain the key forces that could drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs in the coming years.
McKenna noted that BTC has broken below the 50-week moving average, which may trigger further downside pressure. Key support levels include 96,200 (high-volume node), 93,300 (yearly open and mid-range), and the 86,000–91,000 zone (a full correction equivalent to approximately 31%). He highlighted that BTC has twice found support around 92,000, making it a favorable area for staged entries.
While short-term correction remains likely, McKenna emphasized treating any pullback as an opportunity to accumulate spot. He believes Bitcoin is unlikely to make new highs in 2025, but could rise to 150,000+ in late 2026, and potentially surpass 200,000 before the end of Trump’s presidential term. He expects institutional demand, ETF inflows, and renewed liquidity in 2026 to be the main long-term catalysts.
ETH & SOL PRICES FALL BELOW TREASURY COST BASIS; BMNR SITS ON 2.8B UNREALIZED LOSS
On November 14, aggregated data from official sources and Ember showed the cost-basis distribution of major crypto treasury firms:
• Strategy: 641,692 BTC at an average cost of 74,085, currently up 31.67%.
• Bitmine: 3.505 million ETH at an average cost of 4,020, currently down 20.14%.
• Forward Industries: 6,871,599.06 SOL at an average cost of 232.08, currently down 38.53%.
The fact that ETH and SOL have broken below treasury acquisition levels — with BMNR facing an unrealized loss exceeding 2.8 billion — highlights several structural issues:
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Poor liquidity management, with large treasuries failing to account for market depth and volatility when building positions.
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The fragility of the “altcoin micro-strategy” narrative, which collapses quickly under regulatory pressure or market stress, exposing staking and borrowing chains to liquidation risk.
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Short-selling firms like Kerrisdale are not merely betting against token prices, but specifically targeting the valuation premium embedded in the treasury-driven business model — accelerating confidence erosion across the market.
BITCOIN ENTERS A “MICRO BEAR MARKET”
Matrixport stated today that Bitcoin has entered a micro bear market phase. Recent price action resembles past “mini-bear” periods, during which heightened sensitivity to key signals and strict risk management becomes critical.
On the capital and macro side, ETF inflows have slowed, early and seasoned investors have reduced exposure, and short-term macro catalysts remain weak. Upcoming movement will largely depend on the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
From a market-cycle and liquidity standpoint, Matrixport’s “micro bear market” call aligns with current conditions. Following a strong rally, ETF inflows have cooled, profit-taking has increased, and the market lacks new bullish catalysts—conditions that historically lead to temporary corrections within broader bull cycles, rather than full-scale trend reversals.
