KEYTAKEAWAYS
Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates in March
Bitcoin Open Interest Drops to $46.51B
ETH/BTC Hits Lowest Level Since 2020: What’s Next for Ethereum
CONTENT
FED RATE CUT PROBABILITY IN MARCH IS ONLY 3%
On March 12, the CME “FedWatch” tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 3%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged is 97%. This means the market has priced in no rate cut this month.
Analysis:
A delayed rate cut means higher borrowing costs, which could pressure risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.Bitcoin has been closely linked to the stock market, so if the market continues adjusting to delayed rate cut expectations, BTC could face bearish pressure in the mid-term.
BITCOIN FUTURES OPEN INTEREST DROPS TO $46.51 BILLION
Data shows that the total Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) is 567,130 BTC (about $46.51 billion).
- CME leads with 144,770 BTC ($11.86 billion) in open interest.
- Binance ranks second with 108,620 BTC ($8.91 billion) in open interest.
Analysis:
Higher open interest means higher potential market volatility.If BTC price breaks key support or resistance levels, it could trigger liquidations, causing sharp price swings.Recent BTC price volatility could be linked to high-leverage OI, so traders should watch for potential liquidation risks.
ETH/BTC RATIO HITS LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2020
On March 12, the ETH/BTC ratio briefly dropped to 0.02265, now trading at 0.02271, down 3.07% in 24 hours—the lowest level since June 2020.
Analysis:
The Ethereum ecosystem lacks major bullish catalysts recently.Meme coin hype has cooled, and L2 competition is increasing, leading to weaker ETH demand.Long-term recovery depends on Ethereum’s ecosystem growth—if ETH 2.0 progresses well, L2 adoption expands, and institutional funds return, the ETH/BTC ratio could recover.However, short-term trends remain weak.
Also Read：
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