KEYTAKEAWAYS
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Bitmine’s ETH holdings face pressure: If ETH drops $200, it hits their $3,949 cost basis on 2.15M ETH worth $9B.
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Crypto market slides: Total value dips below $4T after sharp selloff; Bitcoin briefly at $111.8K, $1.1B liquidated in one hour.
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HYPE unlock risk: Starting Nov 2025, $11.9B tokens unlock over 24 months; buyback covers only 17%, raising heavy supply concerns.
CONTENT
ETH COULD FACE PRESSURE IF PRICE DROPS ANOTHER $200, APPROACHING BITMINE’S COST BASIS
On September 22, on-chain analysts reported that Ethereum (ETH) would reach Bitmine’s average cost basis if the price declines another $200. Data shows that Bitmine currently holds about 2.151 million ETH, valued at roughly $9 billion, with an average cost of $3,949 per token.
If ETH falls below this level, Bitmine’s paper profits could quickly shrink or even turn negative. Although the company has repeatedly emphasized that it will not sell its core holdings in the short term, market observers warn that sustained downside pressure on ETH could weigh on Bitmine’s stock price and hinder its future refinancing or accumulation strategies.
Industry insiders point out that Bitmine, as one of the most important treasury-like entities in the Ethereum ecosystem, has its cost basis viewed as a psychological support level. A break below could trigger a chain reaction in the market, testing both liquidity and confidence.
CRYPTO MARKET CAP FALLS BELOW $4 TRILLION
The broader crypto market experienced sharp turbulence on the same day. Bitcoin dropped more than 2.5% within five minutes, hitting a low of $111,800 before rebounding to $112,800. Ethereum briefly fell to $4,077 and is now trading around $4,149. Solana also slid to $214.5 before recovering to $222.
Overall, total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined 3.2% over the past 24 hours, slipping below the $4 trillion psychological threshold for the first time. The downturn was accompanied by a surge in liquidations: in the past hour alone, $1.1 billion was liquidated, with long positions accounting for more than 90% of the total.
Analysts suggest the sell-off stems from a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, shifting market expectations, and institutional de-risking. Without fresh inflows of capital, the market may continue to see elevated volatility in the near term.
ARTHUR HAYES WARNS OF HYPE’S UPCOMING SELL-OFF PRESSURE
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently explained his decision to trim HYPE holdings. He noted that the token is heading toward a major “stress test”: starting November 29, 2025, 237.8 million HYPE tokens held by the team will begin unlocking over 24 months. At the current price of $50, this unlock amounts to about $11.9 billion, translating to roughly $500 million of supply hitting the market each month.
However, current buyback reserves can only cover around 17% of the monthly unlocks, or about $85 million. The remaining $410 million in monthly supply could put direct pressure on the market. Analysts describe this as a “Damocles’ sword” hanging over HYPE in a market already grappling with limited liquidity.
Hayes stressed that he has not lost faith in HYPE’s long-term potential but warned that the short-term supply-demand imbalance could inflict notable price pressure. Market watchers believe this unlocking phase will be a decisive moment for HYPE’s ability to retain its market position into 2026.
