KEYTAKEAWAYS
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Opinion transforms prediction markets into a macro trading platform.
By combining a CLOB engine, AI-powered oracles, and a unified liquidity pool, it aims to make macro data like CPI and interest rates tradable on-chain.
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Backed by Binance-linked YZi Labs, the project targets institutional-grade design.
Its seed round investors include Animoca Brands and Amber Group, signaling strong capital confidence and a path toward regulated innovation.
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No token yet, but early traction is strong.
The testnet reached 1.6 million traders and $303 million in volume, showing high user interest even before mainnet launch or token release.
CONTENT
ORIGIN: FROM BETTING ON EVENTS TO TRADING REALITY
In 2025, prediction markets are no longer just about guessing who will win an election or whether it will rain next week. While traders on Polymarket place bets on politics or sports, a new platform called Opinion—formerly O.LAB—is trying to turn forecasting itself into an investable market.
Opinion is not another on-chain casino. It aims to make macro data tradable—numbers like the U.S. CPI, eurozone interest rates, or China’s manufacturing index. These indicators, once limited to financial derivatives, can now be priced directly on-chain.
To make this possible, Opinion has built a structure closer to a professional exchange than a prediction app. Its system combines a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) engine, multi-source oracles, a cross-market liquidity layer called Metapool, and an AI-driven market generator. Unlike AMM-based protocols, CLOB lets professional market makers quote and match orders with full transparency, improving both capital efficiency and price discovery.
The project is currently running on the Monads test chain and plans to launch its mainnet on BNB Chain in Q4 2025. Its whitepaper introduces the first AI Oracle system built on decentralized multi-agent models. These AI agents parse macroeconomic data, define settlement rules, and even suggest new markets worth creating. In short, AI does not only answer what happened—it helps decide what should be predicted. For a space built on speculation, this marks a shift from entertainment to cognition.
TEAM: FROM INVESTMENT LOGIC TO ON-CHAIN TRUST
Opinion Labs was founded in 2023 in Hong Kong by a team with backgrounds in finance and engineering. Co-founder Forrest L, formerly at CMB International, and partner KJ, an expert in blockchain infrastructure and quantitative systems, share a single goal—to turn economic information into a new asset class.
Their approach quickly drew attention from major investors. In Q1 2025, Opinion raised $5.5 million in a seed round led by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs), with participation from Animoca Brands, Amber Group, Manifold Trading, and Echo Community. Earlier, it had joined Binance’s Most Valuable Builder (MVB) program, a strong sign of credibility within the Binance ecosystem.
Rather than chasing short-term hype, the team focused on mechanism design. Forrest L often says, “The challenge in prediction markets isn’t data—it’s trust.” That trust is built through a stake-and-challenge model: anyone can submit an answer to a prediction, but each answer requires collateral. If no one disputes it within the challenge period, the result stands. If challenged, token holders vote to decide the outcome. This turns resolution from a centralized decision into a game of incentives where consensus is earned, not declared.
The liquidity layer Metapool adds another layer of depth by pooling capital across multiple markets. Liquidity can move freely between events, creating deeper order books and tighter spreads. The result feels less like a betting venue and more like a decentralized CME for information.
MODEL: A MARKET WITHOUT A TOKEN, POWERED BY POINTS
In an industry obsessed with token launches, Opinion’s restraint feels radical. As of April 2025, there is no native token—only a Points system. Users earn points through trading, market making, or community testing, which may later convert into token rewards. The first campaign, OPN Season 1, requires only $200 in trading volume to qualify.
This mirrors early “proof-of-participation” models, where engagement earns future governance rights instead of immediate speculation. Developer documents note that future tokens will support governance proposals, staking, and market creation. Trading fees will be shared between liquidity providers, insurance funds, and the protocol treasury—forming a sustainable incentive loop.
Even without a token, adoption has been strong. By March 2025, the testnet had drawn 1.6 million active traders, created 633 markets, and processed $303 million in total volume (with $190 million in USDO and $112 million in USDC). Most trading focused on macro-economic topics—interest rates, employment data, and crypto volatility—indicating that Opinion’s user base is more analytical than speculative.
Compared with peers, the progress is striking. Polymarket reached $9 billion in total volume but only 300,000 users. Augur and Omen remain niche due to slow dispute cycles and low liquidity. Opinion’s blend of CLOB trading and AI oracles appears to have unlocked a long-sought balance among liquidity, trust, and usability.
OUTLOOK: BETWEEN REGULATION AND INNOVATION
Prediction markets have always lived on the edge between innovation and regulation. In 2022, the U.S. CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for offering unregistered event contracts. In 2024, senators even proposed banning political prediction markets outright. Regulators fear that once these markets grow large enough, bets could influence real-world outcomes.
Opinion is aware of that boundary. The platform focuses on macro-economic indicators instead of politics or entertainment, but when trading GDP, CPI, or rate expectations, it still touches the definition of financial derivatives. In most jurisdictions—Hong Kong, the U.S., or the EU—such instruments require licensing.
Yet Opinion’s structure gives it a potential compliance edge. Built on BNB Chain and backed by YZi Labs, it inherits Binance’s audit and KYC standards. Projects in this network typically undergo smart-contract audits and third-party custody checks, signaling a more regulated path for decentralized forecasting.
If Augur was the idealist beginning and Polymarket the commercial turning point, Opinion could mark the third phase—where prediction becomes a legitimate macro asset and the market itself becomes a tool for truth-finding.
As Forrest L once said, “The real value of a prediction market isn’t winning—it’s understanding why you lost.” In a world flooded with data, that statement feels like both a warning and a vision. Prediction, in this sense, is no longer about guessing the future. It is about proving what we believe in.
