Galaxy Research 2026: Bitcoin, Solana, and Value Capture-2

KEYTAKEAWAYS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• KEY TAKEAWAYS
• 3. SUMMARY
• DISCLAIMER
• WRITER’S INTRO

CONTENT

 A deep analysis of L1/L2 value capture shifts, comparing Ethereum and Solana strategies, and exploring how applications, stablecoins, and AI payments reshape crypto power dynamics.

Previous reading

2.3 Power transfer in the L1/L2 value chain

This section is also a significant part of the G research report, arguably containing the most core viewpoints, and it also elaborates on the SOL analysis.

The viewpoint is similar to the ETH identity crisis mentioned in the previous analysis of the Messari research report.

The difference lies in the fact that G discusses application-layer revenue exceeding that of public chains from SOL’s perspective, while the latter considers how ETH should reclaim its value from ETH’s perspective.

First, let’s look at three data points related to SOL.

1. Revenue Inversion: June 2024 was a watershed moment, as revenue generated by Solana application layers (such as Pump.fun and Jito) surpassed the gas fee revenue of the public chain itself for the first time. By the end of 2025, this ratio had reached 3.5:1.
2. Real Economic Value (REV): By 2025, Solana applications had generated over $4 billion in cumulative revenue.
3. ETF Inflows Diverge: In November 2025, during a market correction, the Solana ETF still recorded a net inflow of $420 million, indicating that institutional funds are shifting from “speculative” to “asset allocation.”

Next, let’s look at the ETH data.

1. Revenue Inversion Ratio: In the first quarter of 2025, total transaction fees generated by Ethereum on-chain applications (such as Uniswap, Lido, and Aave) were approximately $1.01 billion, while the revenue captured by the Ethereum mainnet (L1) was only about one-fifth of the application revenue.
2. L1 Revenue Shrinks: With the adoption of EIP-4844 (Blob Space) and L2 scaling solutions, the average transaction fee for Ethereum L1 has decreased by more than 95%. This has caused L1 fee revenue to plummet from 40% of the total chain revenue in 2021 to less than 3% currently.

The data above clearly demonstrates that, for both SOL and ETH, applications are more effective at generating revenue than public blockchains, supporting the theory of “application-layer power grab.”

However, from the perspective of M’s research report, he explored whether Ethereum is becoming a “settlement dump” for L2, and predicted that by 2026 Ethereum must reclaim value capture at the execution layer through mainnet sharding or other major upgrades.

Messari argues that Ethereum is becoming a “cheap liquidation layer.” Due to the extremely low L2 fees, the gas fees captured by the Ethereum mainnet have drastically decreased, making it impossible for ETH to maintain its “deflationary” narrative.

If ETH wins: it means L2 will reinvest its profits back into the mainnet, or applications will remain on the mainnet and pay hefty “protection fees.”

If the application layer wins (Galaxy’s perspective): Applications (such as Uniswap) will retain all the gas fees and MEV rewards originally allocated to Ethereum within their own token (UNI) by building their own chain (Unichain) or using an application chain.

This is a zero-sum game. If the “application-layer power grab” succeeds, the logic of Ethereum as a value anchor will collapse, and ETH will become a mere “securities” or “collateral,” rather than “fuel for the world’s computers.”

M’s stance in the report is based on how the ETH team can reclaim value.

However, after reviewing some of Vitalik Buterin’s public statements from earlier this year, I believe that some of M’s predictions will not come true.

The reason is that the ETH team’s “self-rescue” method is not to steal money from applications, but to continue making ETH cheaper.

How should we understand this?

In several presentations in early 2026, Vitalik Buterin mentioned that Ethereum’s ultimate value lies not in how much gas fees it collects, but in how much “indestructible value” it carries (censorship resistance, ultimate security).

Ethereum’s focus in 2026 will be on advancing the full integration of PeerDAS and zkEVM (i.e., the “Glamsterdam” and “Hegota” upgrades), with the goal of making Ethereum the cheapest and most secure data availability (DA) layer.

In other words, faced with the issue of application layers taking away value, Vitalik Buterin’s team chose not to compete with them for money, but instead to continue making Ethereum more secure and cheaper, attracting more applications to deploy on Ethereum.

Prepare the soil so that the seeds can take root, instead of competing with the seeds for nutrients.

This can be interpreted as the Ethereum team abandoning the idea of ​​being a “profitable commercial company” and instead creating a “constitution for global digital territory.”

However, this shift in market dynamics is unfriendly to retail investors (prices rise more slowly), but beneficial to institutional investors.

But Solana’s logic is completely different.

Anatoly believes that public blockchains should be like Nasdaq, not only fast but also directly capturing the value of every transaction.

He opposes pushing applications to L2, advocating that all business operations occur on the mainnet, so that every successful transaction directly translates into demand and cost capture for SOL.

So although the current situation is that application revenue on SOL has surpassed mainnet revenue, the SOL team has been preparing to reclaim value since 2025.

First, in early 2025, SOL allocated 100% of the priority fee to validators (previously, 50% was destroyed and 50% went to validators).

Following this, the programmatically distributed these recovered “priority fees” to SOL stakers automatically.

Now, in 2026, the plan is to upgrade Alpenglow to achieve a settlement speed of 100ms.

The higher the performance, the more dependent the application is on the public blockchain, making it easier to collect “public blockchain taxes,” and thus ensuring that applications obediently hand over their money to SOL.

Therefore, based on the above, we can see that Solana and Ethereum are taking two different paths. The reason why Solana dares to engage in such aggressive fundraising is mainly because all applications on Solana are on the same ledger.

SOL insists that the mainnet is the execution layer.

It lacks the concept of L2 (although it has sidechains, they are not mainstream); all transactions, slippage, and MEV (miner bribery) occur on the mainnet.

Therefore, this is a fatal attraction for AI payments and high-frequency payment applications. However, Ethereum has too many L2 and sidechains, and deploying them there would face too much cross-chain friction, which is too painful.

The prediction of SOL’s price in G’s research report is based on this, but if SOL wants to regain its value in 2026, it will definitely face competition and challenges at the application layer.

For example, the previous Jito

A related question is, if SOL regains its revenue, will it squeeze the value of applications on SOL? What should be considered when determining the outcome of their power struggle? These are also points worth paying attention to.

In 2025, Solana’s on-chain fee revenue exceeded $600 million (some institutions even estimated its total revenue at $1.4 billion), and its application revenue is highly correlated with public chain revenue because Solana tends to keep its business within a “single segment” of the mainnet.

However, it’s important to note that this value grab in SOL will not change the prediction that G’s application revenue to network revenue ratio will double by 2026.

The current logic is to expand the market; SOL is the “marketplace,” and applications are the “stores.”

This is equivalent to the shopping mall announcing: “From now on, all queuing fees for in-store shopping will belong to the mall management.” While stores like Jupiter (JUP) have their “queue tax” taken by the mall, data from early 2026 shows that the total revenue from the Solana application is approximately 3.5 times that of the mainnet revenue.

2.4 Stablecoins, Regulatory Exemptions, and AI Collaboration

The key points of G’s research report are in the first three chapters, which I’ve discussed in detail. I’ll just put the last two chapters together.

I’ve mentioned many of these points in previous disassembly and analysis reports, so I won’t go into detail. I’ll just give a brief overview and list some relevant stocks.

2.4.1 Stablecoins

Key takeaways: Stablecoin trading volume may surpass that of the US ACH settlement system in 2026, and the market will eventually consolidate, resulting in a very small number of winners.

Predicted Highlights: At least one Fortune 500 company will launch an enterprise-grade public blockchain with a daily settlement volume exceeding $1 billion.

Alpha opportunity:

Focus on payment-level L2

As stablecoins become a mainstream payment method, underlying protocols capable of handling massive amounts of small, high-frequency transactions (such as Solana’s PayFi plugin or dedicated chains supported by PayPal/Visa) will capture substantial settlement tax revenue.

Finding “technology providers” for these enterprise-grade public blockchains

For example, protocols that provide modular architectures for these large companies (such as Optimism’s OP Stack or Arbitrum Orbit).

2.4.2 Regulatory Exemption

According to the latest SEC guidance in January 2026 (driven by Chairman Paul Atkins), “Project Crypto” was officially launched.

Exemption Logic: As long as a project can prove its “degree of decentralization” or “business authenticity,” it can obtain a registration exemption period of 12-24 months.

Investing in Alpha:

Prior to RWA (Real-World Assets) 2.0, only government bonds were tokenized (such as ONDO). Now, private equity, private lending, and even prime real estate can enter DeFi under an exemption framework.

2.4.3 AI Agent Payment:

Investing in Alpha:

Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): It is not only a platform for publishing AI agents, but also a “clearing layer” for these agent transactions.

Wayfinder / ai16z: Focus on these routing protocols that allow AI agents to freely transfer funds between different applications.

3. SUMMARY

To date, I have analyzed three top research reports from Messari, Bitwise, and Galxy, and I also took the time to write research reports on gold and BTC.

The problem is that these research reports are all backed by European and American institutions, which naturally focus on markets like SOL. Companies like BSC are basically absent from these reports.

In other words, our current perspective is still missing fragments of maps of the East. This aspect cannot be ignored, but I don’t have the energy to conduct more detailed research.

Since I’m also active in the Chinese-speaking community, I think it’s worth keeping an eye on BNB Greenfield’s storage tokenization project within the BSC ecosystem.

When AI requires massive amounts of inexpensive storage, BSC-based storage tokens are more “commercially integrated” than storage protocols on Solana.

For TON, you might want to keep an eye on ecosystem funds like ATON, which are listed on Nasdaq.

In early 2026, it invested $46 million to build an AI computing cluster, directly connecting to Telegram traffic.

I’ll go back and organize the Alpha opportunities mentioned in this month’s research, using my limited energy and capital to filter out the most cost-effective targets.

Then I’ll build an on-chain fund monitoring tool to help me find a good entry point.

The first step, finding targets, is now nearing completion.

The next step is to find the right entry point so that I can enter the market on the eve of a breakout and maximize the use of my capital.

The above viewpoints are referenced from Ace

Research Report Series：

Messari 2026 Crypto Theses: Why Speculation Is No Longer Enough (Part 1)

Bitwise: Why Crypto Is Moving Beyond the Four-Year Cycle

Why Gold Is Surging: Central Banks, Sanctions, and Trust-1