HTX DeepThink: The crypto market has not yet shown signs of a frenzy, and we need to be wary of the risk of unsuccessful Sino-US trade negotiations

CoinRank News: Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed in the latest issue of HTX DeepThink column that Bitcoin has returned to $100,000, but the market has not yet shown signs of frenzy-like rise. The implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin options has stabilized at 50% to 55%, far lower than the 80% or more common at the top of the historical bull market; CME Bitcoin futures open interest is about $14.8 billion, lower than the peak of $20 billion when Trump was elected in 2020. If the U.S. Treasury yield does not rise above 4.8% again and ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate and consolidate between $105,000 and $115,000, waiting for the next round of breakthrough opportunities. At the same time, Chloe pointed out that the market still needs to be vigilant about the risk that trade negotiations between China and the United States and Europe and the United States may not go smoothly. The potential escalation of trade frictions may have a negative impact on global market sentiment, which in turn puts pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin. It is worth mentioning that last weeks HTX DeepThink column combined macro data to predict that a liquidity window may appear in early May, allowing funds to flow back to the crypto market.