JUST IN: THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL ANNOUNCE ITS RATE DECISION AT 3:00 A.M. ON THURSDAY, WITH MARKETS EXPECTING A 25 BP CUT

According to JINSHI, the Fed is set to release its decision at 3:00 a.m., and markets anticipate a 25 bp rate cut to 3.50%–3.75%. There is internal division within the FOMC, with some voters expected to oppose further cuts.

Due to the government shutdown, key October data is missing, so changes to the SEP and dot plot may be limited. Markets are watching whether the Fed will introduce a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program after ending QT. Bank of America estimates monthly purchases of about $45 billion in short-term Treasuries starting in January, or up to $60 billion when including MBS reinvestments.