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Data from prediction market platforms shows that around 10:00 p.m. ET on Friday, the probability of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro stepping down before January 31 began to rise, after holding steady at 5%–6% throughout the previous week.
Before 10:00 p.m. Friday, the probability increased to 8.5%, reached 12.5% by 1:00 a.m. Saturday, and then continued to climb steadily starting around 1:15 a.m.
At least six contracts on the platform are betting on Maduro’s removal from office, with a combined notional value of $56.6 million. This includes approximately $11 million wagered on Maduro stepping down before January 31, which has been resolved as successful, and about $40 million bet on him stepping down before November 30 or December 31, both of which were resolved as unsuccessful.
WRITER’S INTRO
